Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
